GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. (WOOD) — Meteorology is an observational science, meaning the forecasts become more accurate with more data and faster computing power. Still, data is only one piece of the forecasting puzzle.

There are five big steps forecasters follow to determine the weather on an upcoming day. The first is to check the current conditions. It might sound obvious, but it is essential. A great way to be sure the forecast models are trustworthy is to see if they match the current conditions.

The second is to see what is moving toward your area. This can be done by looking at surface conditions and upper-level winds (like the jet stream). Weather is always changing at the surface, but seeing what the weather is doing at an upstream location can be key in nailing down a good forecast.

The third is to lean on good schooling. Meteorologists have a foundation in fluid dynamics, mathematics, physics and thermodynamics. These key principles and rigorous study of how systems typically perform lay the foundation for a forecaster to be able to discern between what could happen and what will happen.

The fourth is to take a deep dive into forecast model data. Forecast models use good science developed by meteorologists and based on the equations of motion to simulate what could happen based on current conditions. Forecast models are all written a little differently, so each usually has a slightly different “answer” as to what the forecast will be.

The last step is to bring all the observations and simulations together to determine the most likely outcome. This is usually done by a meteorologist selecting the most likely outcome based on their opinion. This makes the process of forecasting mostly science, and partially, an art.