The NBA playoffs are so often determined by individual matchups. Superstar vs. superstar, player vs. scheme, coaching style vs. coaching style. It all ultimately leads to glorious victory or devastating defeat for the whole organization, but the path to both destinations is littered with individual victories and losses. Talent matters, of course, but after a certain point, everybody left in the postseason field is talented; the series is then determined by those individual battles.
Take the first round as an example. The Minnesota Timberwolves took down the Los Angeles Lakers in five games in part because Anthony Edwards solved a confusing defensive scheme from JJ Redick. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown went toe-to-toe with Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner to move onto the second round. Steve Kerr managed to outmaneuver Ime Udoka’s excellent defensive design to get the Golden State Warriors past the Houston Rockets.
The second round promises more of the same. Here are the matchups that will determine every series as the NBA postseason enters conference semifinals play.
No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. No. 4 Denver Nuggets
Matchup to watch: Nikola Jokic vs. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokic were far and away the two best players in the NBA this season. They will undoubtedly finish neck-and-neck for this season’s MVP award. Now their respective teams will do battle in the postseason. There isn’t much more fans could ask for.
While they’ll spend little time guarding each other one-on-one, this is still the most enticing matchup of the second round. SGA led the Thunder to 68 wins and after such an easy, swift first-round sweep they’ll have been sitting at home for over a week by the time Game 1 tips off Monday night. Meanwhile, Jokic guided the Nuggets through a tumultuous end-of-season coaching change and a fierce seven-game series against the Los Angeles Clippers in the first round.
And even after moving onto the second round, it’s clear both stars have more to give. Gilgeous-Alexander shot over 50% from the field in only one of his first four playoff games this postseason; it took until Game 4 for the shifty guard to eclipse his 32.7 ppg average against the Memphis Grizzlies. The Clippers put together a tremendous defensive game plan for Jokic, and while the Serbian superstar got his stats, he didn’t comfortably dominate in the way we’re used to seeing. The three-time MVP managed only 16 or fewer shots in four of seven games against Los Angeles, well below his season average of 19.5 per game. Jokic, perhaps more than any player in league history, doesn’t need to get shots up to control the game, but it serves as a reflection of the Clippers’ quality defensive scheme.
In the big picture of this series, the Thunder have better depth, while the Nuggets have championship mettle. But the upcoming duel between two of the greatest players in the world makes for must-watch television.
No. 6 Minnesota Timberwolves vs. No. 7 Golden State Warriors
Matchup to watch: Anthony Edwards vs. Double teams
Throughout this NBA season Edwards has been forced to deal with the special treatment all great scorers get from opposing defenses—a healthy dosage of double teams and swarming coverages. He didn’t adjust well initially and even went so far as to complain that he doesn’t want to pass the ball all the time earlier in the year. But the superstar has slowly adjusted, and his growth was on full display in the Timberwolves’ dominant first-round series win over the Los Angeles Lakers. Without a top-tier wing defender to throw at Edwards, Redick installed a variety of coverages to prevent Minnesota’s star from catching any sort of rhythm—with the one common factor being Edwards nearly always had two defenders right in his grill. Los Angeles swarmed him every single time he touched the ball and was more than willing to live with the Wolves regularly attacking four-on-five as a result.
The Lakers accomplished their primary goal. Edwards exploded in only one game, a 43-point romp in Game 4, but otherwise was held to inefficient shooting numbers and fairly limited scoring output. The problem that led to L.A.’s elimination was that he figured out how best to deal with those double teams. In every Minnesota win, Edwards recorded at least six assists; in the one loss the team suffered, he had zero helpers.
The Warriors seem likely to enact a similar strategy. They are far better equipped to do so with several dangerous defenders littering the starting lineup, and while Edwards has shown he can dice up defenses, he also hasn’t yet shown the ability to score consistently in those scenarios. The Dubs will gladly take the risk of Edwards beating them as a passer instead of a scorer. The Timberwolves are not an invincible team but are pretty close to it when their All-Star scorer is feeling it.
How Edwards adjusts to double teams featuring Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green instead of Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves will determine the path of this series. If he and the rest of the Timberwolves offense show they can consistently take advantage of the floor imbalance caused by constant double teams, the Warriors will have to find another strategy. But if they can fluster Edwards with the strategy, as he has been at times this season, the series becomes much more interesting.
No. 2 Boston Celtics vs. No. 3 New York Knicks
Matchup to watch: Jayson Tatum vs. Mikal Bridges
After watching the Celtics stroll to a title last year, the Knicks spent their offseason playing copycat in an effort to both copy what Boston did best and construct a team capable of defending the many weapons the defending champs boast. This vision (and the lengths New York was willing to go to fulfill it) was headlined by the acquisition of Bridges for the high price of five first-round picks. Now the Knicks have both what they wanted and what they prepared for—a postseason battle with the Celtics. And Bridges will be pivotal in their efforts to stifle the offensive excellence of Tatum.
While the Celtics are notoriously loaded with talent, everything runs through Tatum. He can torture New York and proved as much in the final battle between the two sides this season, which also happened to be the closest of their regular-season series. He had 32 points, seven rebounds and five assists on 50% shooting from the floor in an overtime win for Boston. The All-NBA wing really heated up down the stretch of the contest and in particular dominated Bridges, overwhelming New York’s second-best defender with his strength before shooting over him. Bridges couldn’t do a thing to stop Tatum despite sharing similar length.
The Knicks really need that to change for a hope at hanging with the Celtics. Boston’s go-to offensive sets will involve dragging Karl-Anthony Towns and Jalen Brunson into pick-and-rolls. Given how often they did so in the regular season, the Knicks and coach Tom Thibodeau will undoubtedly be prepared with counters. But Tatum showed in their last encounter that, if those primary options fail, he isn’t afraid to go at Bridges after finding regular success in doing so. New York can’t survive that in a playoff environment. It’s already bad enough to have two iffy defenders in the starting lineup; if Bridges is unable to deter the opposing team’s best player, that’ll make three weak links for Tatum to pick at over and over again. That shifts Boston’s advantage from strong to nearly impossible to overcome.
Despite the fact that Tatum’s demolition of Bridges occurred less than one month ago, the Knicks should hold some optimism their prized offseason acquisition can hold up. It was clear from the eye test Bridges elevated his defensive intensity in the first round against the Detroit Pistons, and New York needed every bit of it to advance. He’ll need to bring that and more to the table in the second round, because if not, Tatum is entirely capable of wiping the Knicks off the map by himself.
No. 1 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. No. 4 Indiana Pacers
Matchup to watch: Donovan Mitchell vs. Tyrese Haliburton
It isn’t revolutionary to point to two of the top scorers in the series and say their duel will determine how things go. But for these two teams, it’s just that simple. Mitchell and Haliburton are conductors of their respective orchestras, a pair of lightning-in-a-bottle offensive players whose teams follow their leads. Both are also questionable defensively, which means their ability to push their teams will largely be determined by their offensive output.
As the only series already underway, we’ve already seen that reflected on the court. In Game 1, the Pacers stole home court from the Cavaliers, winning 121–112. Haliburton was nearly immaculate, posting 22 points and 13 assists with only one turnover as he regularly led the Pacers offense into transition at every opportunity. He kept the Cavs defense on its toes all night and when he can hit his stepback threes in isolation, it’s basically impossible to defend him. For most of the game it felt like Haliburton dictated the state of play, not Cleveland’s defense. That’s a losing formula for the No. 1 Cavs.
Mitchell, on the other hand, did not have his best stuff. Missing co-star Darius Garland, the All-Star scorer put up 33 points on 30 shots featuring a disastrous 1-of-11 showing from beyond the arc. The Cavs were outscored by 19 points in his 34 minutes on the court. Garland’s absence should serve as an asterisk to an extent on the outcome for Cleveland given how important he is to keeping the offense on track when Mitchell is on the bench and even when he’s on the floor. But the Cavs are always going to struggle if Mitchell isn’t scoring efficiently; seven of Cleveland’s 18 losses this season came in games where the star scorer shot 33% or worse from the floor.
When Mitchell and Haliburton are clicking, they control the game in different ways. Mitchell’s shotmaking can reach absurd levels of skill, which in turn demands the defense overreact to his every motion, opening up the floor for everyone else. Haliburton is incisive with not only his assists but his drives. Every step is meant to tilt the floor ever so slightly, leaving open a sliver of a window for the point guard to rifle a pass through. Their contrasting styles should make for amazing duels on nights where both are feeling it, and how often they can hit the ceiling of their respective styles will be what everybody remembers from this second-round clash.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as The Matchup That Will Decide Each NBA Playoff Second-Round Series.