Heading into Friday’s matchup, the Atlanta Dream (16-11) and Phoenix Mercury (16-10) are neck-and-neck in the standings, with both teams jockeying for playoff position in a crowded WNBA field.
Atlanta has won with balance — ranking top four in both scoring differential and rebounding margin — while Phoenix leans on offensive firepower, with its potent trio of Satou Sabally, Alyssa Thomas and Sami Whitcomb leading a top-five scoring attack.
The Dream will have home-court advantage at Gateway Center Arena, where they’ll look to contain Phoenix’s efficient perimeter game and capitalize on their edge on the glass.
Here are our picks for tipoff.
Mercury vs. Dream Odds, Spread and Total
Spread
- Mercury -2 (-110)
- Dream +2 (-110)
Moneyline
- Mercury (-140)
- Dream (+114)
Total
- Over 164 (-110)
- Under 164 (-110)
Mercury vs. Dream How to Watch
- Date: Friday August 1, 2025
- Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: Gateway Center Arena
- How to Watch (TV): ION
- Mercury Record: 16-11
- Dream Record: 16-10
Mercury vs. Dream Player Prop
Aliah Gray Over 18.5 Points (-108 at FanDuel)
Gray leads Atlanta in scoring at 18.3 points per game and is also the team’s top three-point shooter at 2.4 makes per contest. Facing a Phoenix team that allows nearly 34% shooting from deep and struggles on the boards, Gray is in a strong spot to exceed her scoring average, especially if this turns into a fast-paced, high-possession game.
Mercury vs. Dream Prediction and Pick
The Dream at +114 is an intriguing value play. They’ve been excellent at home and match up well to negate Phoenix’s strengths. The Mercury rely heavily on outside shooting and transition offense, but Atlanta’s rebounding advantage — second in the league at 36.3 boards per game — could limit Phoenix’s second chances and fast-break opportunities.
Atlanta also boasts a better scoring margin (+4.5 vs. +2.9), more three-point production, and a slightly stronger defense. With Gray leading a balanced attack and Brionna Jones anchoring the interior, Atlanta has the personnel to keep Sabally in check and disrupt Phoenix’s rhythm. If the Dream win the battle of possessions and can shoot even league-average from deep, they’re well positioned to pull off the upset — or at least prove that the line shouldn't have made it one.
Pick: Dream (+114 at FanDuel)
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Mercury vs. Dream Prediction, Odds, Best WNBA Prop Bets for Friday, Aug. 1.